Andy Burnham’s grassroots revolt against the populists

Burnham is the last hope for a mainstream politician to capture the anti-Westminster mood for change before it’s too late

I’ve just returned to the UK from a wedding in the United States. A lot seems to have happened in my absence! There is definitely a renewed sense of possibility in the air.

Can Andy Burnham become the first mainstream politician to successfully embrace the anti-establishment, anti-Westminster, anti-bureaucracy, ‘just get things done’ feeling in the country?

Can he harness the anti ‘business as usual’ impulse that sent Trump to the White House – twice, Farage to surge in the polls, and populists to win across the world, and channel it into a powerful insurgent movement for change?

Seven prime ministers in the last 10 years is the clearest sign that the damaging, needless, generational-defining mistake of Brexit has left Britain rudderless and on the backfoot. Change has been promised, attempted, argued for, by each of those Prime Ministers. There has been clear progress in the last two years. But voters’ patience remains at breaking point and Reform is waiting in the wings.

So, this is it. The final chance for a politician from one of two traditional mainstream parties to make the change needed to put the country back on track and see off the populists.

Andy Burnham comes armed with something neglected, something important, something game-changing – a big argument. He makes a compelling case that Britain is overly centralised and top-down, in contrast to the bottom-up politics he has practiced in Manchester over the last ten years. He has a take on the world. He has a diagnosis. He has some solutions.

Changing the story

In the words of this Substack, it’s about changing the story.

Changing the story to hope. Changing the story to possibility. And crucially for think tanks, policy makers, businesses, charities, social entrepreneurs, he is asking them to contribute to a big question. “How do we get all parts of the country firing?”

Manchesterism is about place-powered growth: devolve power to a real economic region, build long-term civic institutions, use public authority to shape markets, and turn growth into better transport, education, housing, skills, jobs and public services.

There will be critics who will say it’s anti-southern, too parochial, doesn’t meet the challenges of this moment. He should ignore the doubters and not make Starmer’s mistake of spending two years in opposition making the case for mission government, as a way of building a movement for change, only to abandon it once in power. This is Burnham’s project. He is fired up about it and should see it through.

In the work I have done on the rise of right-wing populism, and in the more recent work on young Neets, I have been struck by the feeling of so many that they have been disrespected, that their lives are harder than they should be, that the next generation has had its future stolen, that there is so much untapped potential. This lack of agency is corrosive. It is felt acutely by those who do not go to university and have few routes to success and by those in crumbling towns with little prospect of fulfilling their aspirations. It is a cry for fairness. And for the rebuilding of the ladders of opportunity.

Politics not economics is the root cause of our problems

It is fashionable to say that the root cause of Britain’s ills is economic stagnation. Burnham’s diagnosis is different. He starts with politics. It’s the broken political system that both sustains and is responsible for the lack of growth and lack of opportunity.

Everything he believes flows from the erosion of political trust, from a Westminster politics that is dysfunctional and a Whitehall that finds it so hard to get anything done. I think he’s right.

For Burnham, there is a clear enemy – the centralised, out-of-touch state.

In Head North, the book he wrote with Liverpool Mayor Steve Rotherham, he says:

Westminster remains an antiquated world into which degrees of democracy were introduced as the franchise was extended. But, fundamentally, it remains the same: a system built to concentrate power in the hands of the already-powerful and that much has not changed through the centuries. This over-concentration of political power in one place in too few hands is the main reason why Britain is one of the most politically centralised and economically unbalanced countries in the developed world. In our view, it is also the underlying explanation for more widespread failure.

And he elaborated on it in his speech this week:

The stark imbalance in resources between national government and local government is holding back growth. If councils can’t fix potholes, what chance do they have of bringing forward major regeneration schemes to get growth going? While national government has got bigger, particularly since the pandemic, local government is threadbare and without the resources to fulfil even statutory responsibilities. This is not just bad for councils and the areas they serve; it is bad for everywhere.

With a powerful statement of intent:

I am going to give Britain the circuit-breaker it needs, by building a more collaborative politics in Westminster, by taking power out of the centre and putting it in the hands of the people and places who can use it best and, in so doing, creating a new sense of agency, possibility and hope flowing around the country.

The agenda that flows from this, driven by No 10 North – to ‘rewire the state’ - requires not just devolution, but an overhaul of Whitehall: the skills of the people it recruits, the incentives that drive the culture, the ending of artificial silos. But Burnham should be under no illusions that the mismatch between Mayors thinking about place and governments thinking in departments will be incredibly hard to change.

What Burnham understands are the issues that really matter in rebuilding trust between politicians and the people. The issues that have eaten away at pride, self-esteem and aspiration. Get these right and he might be able to lance the Farage boil:

• A 10 year mission to raise living standards

• Rebuilding the high streets

• Growth in every postcode

• A ‘complete rethink of the education system’

• A fairer tax system.

He is doing something else as well. He is building a politics that is authentic to him. His ‘irreducible core’ is about fighting for people and places.

His personal story is about a growing radicalisation and alienation from the workings of Westminster as a result of Hillsborough, Covid, and being forced repeatedly as Mayor to go cap in hand to get more out of the government.

Mayors have to be collaborators. To get things done they need to be convenors and persuaders; getting multiple actors to pull in the same direction whatever party they belong to.

New politics

Burnham’s mantra reflects this:

1. Place-first not party first.

2. Problem solving, not point scoring.

3. Long-term not short term.

But Westminster makes this very hard, particularly the first one. The House of Commons demands Punch and Judy, point scoring - not least at PMQs where the aim is to rile up your own backbenchers.

At its heart Burnham’s big devolution argument and new politics could pull off something audacious – a revolt of the people against the populists.

Where Farage offers victimhood, Burnham offers agency.

Where Farage offers scapegoats, Burnham offers common purpose.

Where Farage offers a return to the past, Burnham offers hope for a better future.

His narrative, launched into the mayhem of the attention economy, has the potential to be a long-running box set, rather than a 30 second Tik Tok clip.

All good narratives get you thinking; this one has the potential to do just that.

What if schools were run by Mayors not the DFE?

What if every project/mission had a regional HQ to drive it?

e.g.

• Advanced manufacturing from the Midlands;

• Housing and planning from the North West;

• Youth opportunity/ Neet zero from Birmingham or the North East;

• AI and digital government from Cambridge, Bristol or Edinburgh.

What if there was one civil service – local and national combined – and everyone who joins does a stint in both?

Pride in a place called Britain

Finally, a big challenge.

If this is to be a successful fightback against Reform - a positive story that builds a new coalition - then there is one element missing from the Burnham speech that will become vital in Number 10. How he ladders up a sense of local pride into a bigger sense of national pride. Pride in a place called Britain.

How does Burnham become someone who fights for Britain with as much passion as he has fought for Manchester? To show how massive devolution to communities does not undermine national purpose but strengthens it.

A country that is more than a collection of proud towns and cities but a nation with a renewed sense of direction and confidence in its place in the world. Leading in Europe again. Standing up for British values. A beacon to the world for human ingenuity and innovation. Pride in local places and pride in country.

Then, this grassroots revolt - this new bottom-up politics - really might restore hope and see off the populists.